Donald Trump is the Frontrunner as President Biden Has No Message on Immigration and the Economy 

Although President Joe Biden is within striking distance of former President Donald Trump in the polls, the way the Biden White House is approaching the upcoming election doesn’t give us a degree of confidence that they have a winning approach, message, or strategy other than demonizing the former president as they did in 2020 and 2022.

Most of all, the problem with this approach is that elections tend to be referendums on incumbent politicians. So far, the polls show that voters feel better about their quality of life during Trump’s presidency, suggesting that Biden is more likely to lose this contest than win.

A new Schoen Cooperman Research national poll shows former President Trump leading Biden by two points (47% to 45%). RealClear Politics general election polling average comes to a similar conclusion, with the former president leading the incumbent 47.5% to 45.5%.

Worse still, Joe Biden’s approval rating is 38%, according to the latest poll by the Wall Street Journal, and it averages 39.6 points on RealClear Politics. Historically, when an incumbent has an approval rating lower than 40%, it is nearly impossible for him to be re-elected. Biden’s low poll numbers aren’t just a warning sign but a sign of a near-death electoral experience.

Polling shows that more than a third (35%) of Democratic voters believe the party should choose a candidate other than Joe Biden. Furthermore, half of respondents (50%) believe Biden is mentally unfit to be president, compared to 44% who believe the same of Trump.

To worsen matters, Joe Biden is losing virtually every issue compared to Donald Trump, especially on the border (58% to 29%) and the economy (51% to 40%).

Until recently, President Joe Biden has campaigned on “Bidenomics,” which, according to the polls, has been a complete failure. Despite his claims about job creation and the revitalization of the economy, Americans don’t feel the same way. 

As shown in the latest CBS poll, Americans feel the economy is worse under Biden than under Trump by a whopping 27 points (65% to 38%). A new Wall Street Journal editorial shows that Biden’s marks on the economy are improving slightly, but more than two-thirds of voters continue to express frustration over inflation.

This will be a substantial obstacle to overcome, as the White House does not show an interest or ability to face the problem head-on.

Joe Biden must directly speak to the American people about inflation and address concerns about the cost of living and how it impacts daily life. If the president can do this, he will continue his trajectory on the economy for the positive and improve his economic leadership record.

Regarding immigration, a new poll by Morning Consult shows voters are 16% more likely (66%) to say the immigration issue is “very important” to them compared to only 50% who responded the same in 2022. 

The administration has not made a unilateral, sustained effort to fix the crisis at the southern border following the collapse of the immigration deal. With Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas maintaining there is little Biden can do without Congress, Senate, and House Republicans arguing the opposite, it remains unclear whether the president can or will take action.

Biden must use executive orders to unilaterally strengthen the southern border, restrict and strengthen the asylum process, and show leadership on an issue which he has been overwhelmingly silent on except for funding the wars in Ukraine and Israel and the failed bipartisan bill on immigration.

In the absence of any policy proposals from the White House, it should be expected Donald Trump’s near 30-point lead on immigration will indefinitely continue.

It is doubtful that the White House is inclined, willing, or able to consider an alternative approach other than attacking Donald Trump as it did successfully in 2020 and 2022.

For the first time, Donald Trump is the clear favorite in the presidential contest. Whether that trajectory will continue will be the question for the next eight months.