New Echelon Poll: Former President Donald Trump Has 7-Point Lead Over President Biden in Swing States

Former President Donald Trump holds a 7-point lead over President Joe Biden in critical swing states, according to a new Echelon Poll released Wednesday. 

A whole 48% of respondents in swing states said they would probably or definitely vote for Trump when compared with 41% who said they would choose Biden is still favored narrowly overall by likely voters by 43% to 42%. 

Former President Trump’s lead in swing states is further cemented when Green Party candidate Cornel West is involved, with 48% of respondents saying they would choose the former president compared with 40% for President Biden. 

“There is always a danger a third-party candidate can impact the Electoral College results, particularly if they receive enough votes in a battleground state or states to change the outcome,” said David B. Cohen, a political science professor at the University of Akron in Ohio. 

“In a close election, Cornel West could well be a spoiler,” said Cohen. 

“There is no evidence to suggest that the 2024 election will be anything but a very close election decided by razor-thin margins, which means that the third-party candidate could have an outsized influence in the result,” added Cohen. 

The report comes as the former president’s campaign pulled in over $35 million in the second quarter of fundraising this year, almost double what the former president raised in the first quarter and since he was indicted on charges he mishandled classified documents. 

An NBC poll conducted between June 16-20 found that the former president had expanded his lead over Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, 51% to 22%, along with the rest of the GOP presidential field. 

“For the first time in history, a former president has been indicted, and we can’t find a marker in this survey that it’s had an impact with his standing,” said GOP pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies, who conducted the survey with Jeff Horwitt, Democratic pollster of Hart Research Associates. 

“Not only are they sticking with Trump post-federal indictment,” said Horwitt of GOP voters, “there are several signs that his support is growing or others are losing support is growing or others are losing ground, particularly Ron DeSantis.”

Ramaswamy narrows in on Gov. DeSantis

The polls show biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy also narrowing in on Republican Florida Governor Ron DeSantis in the 2024 presidential primary as former President Donald Trump leads the field. 

The poll showed Ramaswamy gaining two percentage points since a similar survey was conducted in May when he had eight percent support. In the meantime, DeSantis dropped three percentage points since the May poll, when he was at 19 percent. 

The results come as some Republicans continue to express concerns about the Florida governor’s viability as a candidate since his campaign rollout over a Twitter Spaces rollout even in May. 

The Echelon Insights poll surveyed 1,020 voters among likely voters between June 26 and June 29. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.